A claim that can be tested
“Camden has turned around” is a sentence that appears in speeches, news stories and advertisements. Unlike a feeling about a place, it can be partly tested. A turnaround implies a change in direction, and direction can be checked by comparing measurements over time. This article lists the indicators readers can look up, explains what each can and cannot show, and avoids declaring a verdict, since reasonable readings differ and the data keep changing.
First, define the claim
A claim is easier to check once it is specific. Turnaround from what, by what measure, and for whom? Possible versions include:
- the city’s finances have improved;
- the number of jobs in the city has grown;
- residents’ incomes have risen;
- the population has stopped falling;
- crime has declined;
- school outcomes have improved.
Each requires different data. A statement that mixes them all together is hard to test, and a statement that offers no measure at all is not really a claim.
Indicators to look up
Population. The Census Bureau counts people every ten years and publishes estimates between counts. Camden’s population peaked at roughly 125,000 around 1950 and was a little under 72,000 in 2020. Whether recent years show a rise, a plateau or a decline should be read from the latest published figures. Even a rise would be informative only in combination with other measures, as the general study of population change in industrial cities shows.
Jobs in the city versus jobs held by residents. Employment data can count jobs located in Camden or employed people who live there, and the two are different. More jobs in the city does not automatically mean more employed residents, since many workers commute from elsewhere. The state labor department and the Census Bureau both publish relevant tables. The overall economy and jobs picture should be read with that distinction in mind.
Poverty and income. The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey reports poverty rates and median household income. Camden’s poverty rate has been far above the state average for decades. Because small-area estimates carry margins of error, compare ranges rather than single numbers, and compare the same years and definitions.
Housing. Vacancy, home values, rents and the number of households paying a large share of income for housing can be checked. Rising values can signal investment but can also signal pressure on current residents.
Public finances. The city and the state publish budgets and audits. Look at revenue sources, the share of property that is tax-exempt, and the level of state aid.
Crime. Official reports are available, but crime statistics depend on definitions and reporting practices, and changes can have multiple causes. Look at trends over many years, not one year.
Education. State report cards show enrollment, graduation and test results by district and school. Be careful with comparisons across different school types and years, since the student populations may differ.
Reading the numbers carefully
Some cautions apply to all of these.
- Pick comparable years. Starting a comparison at an unusually bad year makes any later year look good.
- Check the geography. City, county and metropolitan numbers can tell different stories.
- Look at margins of error. Survey estimates are approximations.
- Separate averages from distribution. An average can rise while many people see no change.
- Compare with similar places. If neighboring cities and the region changed similarly, the cause may be broader than local policy. The wider context in the Philadelphia area matters.
- Beware of cause and effect. An improvement that follows a program may or may not have been caused by it.
What a fair conclusion looks like
Considering these indicators together, a careful reader will often reach a conclusion that is partial: some measures, such as the city’s governance and finances, look different from earlier decades; others, such as poverty, have shifted little; and for several, the answer depends on the years chosen and the source. The evaluation of any city comeback benefits from this kind of itemized, patient approach, and from skepticism toward round, confident claims in either direction.
For current data, go to the original sources rather than to summaries, including this one. Figures are updated regularly, and a number that was accurate when published may have been revised.